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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd