🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.