NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of play-off spots remain open. However, far more is on the line, including the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and four division titles.
NFL schedulers have crafted a perfect ending, with the final two play-off positions to be decided in two direct winner-take-all matchups.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
AFC Standings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will secure the fourth seed and a home game in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and the Chargers are set as wildcard teams.
Houston require a victory and a Jaguars loss to jump from the fifth seed to the third seed. Denver will earn the #1 ranking with a win, but a loss could open the door for New England or Jacksonville to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the victor of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, granting them the #4 position. Notably, Carolina could still claim the division even with a defeat, depending on other results.
The Packers are set at the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between the Seahawks and San Francisco, with a week off and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC earns a crucial bye week and home games throughout the postseason.
During the Wild Card round, the other six qualified teams face off: the second seed hosts the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the Divisional Round, the top seeds join the fray, hosting the lowest surviving team. The conference title games are then played at the highest seed, highlighting the critical importance of securing that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match reaches its climax in the last contest of the NFL season. The divisional title and a postseason spot on the line, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
The Steelers have been up and down all year, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in contention. Player availability could be decisive: Pittsburgh may miss key target their top wideout, while the Ravens' quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a back injury.
Star rusher Derrick Henry might emerge as the difference-maker for Baltimore in what is set up as a physical, defensive struggle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is on the line when Seattle visits San Francisco. The winner claims the conference's #1 spot and the path to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This matchup pits an high-powered 49ers offense against a dominant Seattle defense. Since quarterback Brock Purdy returned, San Francisco have been the NFL's top offense. On the other hand, Seattle's unit is ranked among the best in the league.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have haunted him this year. The team that wins this clash gains a huge advantage for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs enters this contest with much momentum. The Buccaneers have dropped four straight, while Carolina have squandered recent opportunities to clinch the title.
The Panthers it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they require another result from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the door opens for the Patriots. A New England victory coupled with a Denver defeat would give the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They require a win and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an improbable rise to the top. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
