Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.