Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
